Restricted Free Agency is the last bastion of old-school “teams hold all the power” contract status in the NBA. In a league that has become increasingly player-friendly in terms of players getting paid, teams can still wield the restricted hammer over players. Sure, some restricted free agents get paid, but other times players languish on the market until they have no choice but to re-sign with their teams.

We’re going to look at what some former first-round picks might be looking at in restricted free agency this summer. To better understand that, we’re going to look back at the recent history of restricted free agency.

Over the last five offseasons from 2020 through 2024, a total of 26 former first-round picks have reached restricted free agency. That’s an average of just over five players per offseason.

This offseason, we have a whopping 10 former first-round picks who are pending restricted free agents.

Below are the former first-round picks who reached restricted free agency over the last five years and what ultimately happened with those players and their next contract.

• 2020: Malik Beasley – Minnesota Timberwolves – re-signed for four years, $60 million
• 2020: Juancho Hernangomez – Minnesota Timberwolves – re-signed for three years, $21 million
• 2020: Brandon Ingram – New Orleans Pelicans – re-signed for five years, $158 million
• 2020: Jako Poeltl – San Antonio Spurs – re-signed for three years, $27 million
• 2020: Dario Saric – Phoenix Suns – re-signed for three years, $27 million
• 2020: Denzel Valentine – Chicago Bulls – re-signed for one year, $4.6 million (signed Qualifying Offer)
• 2021: Lonzo Ball – Chicago Bulls – signed-and-traded for four years, $85 million
• 2021: John Collins – Atlanta Hawks – re-signed for five years, $125 million
• 2021: Josh Hart – New Orleans Pelicans – re-signed for three years, $38 million
• 2021: Lauri Markkanen – Cleveland Cavaliers – signed-and-traded for four years, $67 million
• 2022: Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns – matched offer sheet for four years, $133 million
• 2022: Marvin Bagley III – Detroit Pistons – re-signed for three years, $37 million
• 2022: Miles Bridges – Charlotte Hornets – Unsigned (suspended for season)
• 2022: Collin Sexton – Utah Jazz – signed-and-traded for four years, $72 million
• 2022: Anfernee Simons – Portland Trail Blazers – re-signed for four years, $100 million
• 2023: Rui Hachimura – Los Angeles Lakers – re-signed for three years, $51 million
• 2023: Cameron Johnson – Brooklyn Nets – re-signed for four years, $108 million
• 2023: Matisse Thybulle – Portland Trail Blazers – matched offer sheet for three years, $33 million
• 2023: P.J. Washington – Charlotte Hornets – re-signed for three years, $48 million
• 2023: Coby White – Chicago Bulls – re-signed for three years, $40 million
• 2023: Grant Williams – Dallas Mavericks – signed-and-traded for 4 years, $54 million
• 2024 Tyrese Maxey – Philadelphia 76ers – re-signed for five years, $204 million
• 2024: Isaac Okoro – Cleveland Cavaliers – re-signed for three years, $38 million
• 2024: Immanuel Quickley – Toronto Raptors – re-signed for five years, $175 million
• 2024: Obi Toppin – Indiana Pacers – re-signed for four years, $60 million
• 2024: Patrick Williams – Chicago Bulls – re-signed for five years, $90 million

Here’s the breakdown:

• Re-signed on a max deal: Three players (one matched offer sheet)
• Re-signed for less than max: 17 players (one matched offer sheet)
• Re-signed on qualifying offer: One player
• Changed teams via sign-and-trade: Four players
• Unsigned: One player

Out of 26 former first-round picks to reach restricted free agency, all but five returned to their incumbent team the next season. Only three got max contracts. And only two total players garnered offer sheets.

Within that breakdown, there’s a little context needed.

Brandon Ingram was coming off a serious, career-threatening blood clot condition before re-signing with the Pelicans. Tyrese Maxey and the Sixers agreed to delay his re-signing to allow Philadelphia to create the most cap space possible.

Of the players to change teams, all four did so via sign-and-trade. Within that group of four, both Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton had to wait until deep into free agency to get their new deals via sign-and-trade situations.

And, just in case you think the “just sign the qualifying offer and hit unrestricted free agency in the next summer” is a viable path, we’ve seen one player go that route. And, sadly, Denzel Valentine was out of the league after only one more season. Teams have increasingly declined to tender a qualifying offer as opposed to allowing a player to sign and become an unrestricted free agent a year later.

To recap: A grand total of three players got max contracts, and one was coming off injury concerns, one was pre-arranged and one took an offer sheet to get his max deal.

Now, to be fair, several other players got really nice contracts. John Collins, Immanuel Quickley, Cameron Johnson and Anfernee Simons all reached the $100 million marker, while Patrick Williams came up just short of that amount.

Of that group, the jury is still somewhat out on Quickley’s deal (Reminder: Quickley ranks 20th in terms of AAV among NBA point guards for the 2024-25 season. Meaning: It’s a better deal than you think it is.), but the rest are all largely fine. Collins has proven to be a bit overpaid, but Johnson and Simons have delivered solid value on their deals.

Several other players got a contract in range of the Non-Taxpayer MLE or less. To be fair again, only a couple of players got truly got squeezed and outplayed their deals. Jakob Poeltl and Josh Hart both garnered significantly bigger deals on their third contracts. That’s where Coby White seems headed too.

For everyone else, they got paid somewhere between fair and a slight overpay. And a handful of others (Juancho Hernangomez, Dario Saric, Marvin Bagley III) all got bigger deals than they should have.

One other interesting note: Of the 26 former first-round picks to hit restricted free agency since 2020, 12 of them were traded while on the deal they were re-signed to (excluding sign-and-traded players, since the trade was part of the original transaction). Can we all that “re-signers remorse”?

While restricted free agency has been tough on players, it’s largely worked out ok for them. Only three players seem to have gotten truly squeezed as restricted free agents. Sure, only a few got max deals, but the vast majority of restricted free agents still came out with a pretty nice payday.

But…where players are truly impacted is with their ability to change teams. Only four total players changed teams (Again: all via sign-and-trade, in which the incumbent team has some measure of control), and only two others even signed offer sheets. That’s roughly a 15% change rate.

The ability to change teams has been extremely limited. And that’s some history we can expect to repeat itself this offseason.

There are 10 former first-round picks who are pending restricted free agents for the 2025 offseason. By original draft slot, these are the 10 pending RFAs and their qualifying offers:

• Josh Giddey: Chicago Bulls – $11.1 million qualifying offer
• Jonthan Kuminga: Golden State Warriors – $10.2 million qualifying offer
• Davion Mitchell: Miami Heat – $7.9 million qualifying offer*
• Ziaire Williams: Brooklyn Nets – $7.9 million qualifying offer
• Tre Mann: Charlotte Hornets – $6.9 million qualifying offer
• Isaiah Jackson: Indiana Pacers – $6.4 million qualifying offer
• Quentin Grimes: Philadelphia 76ers – $6.3 million qualifying offer*
• Cam Thomas: Brooklyn Nets – $5.9 million qualifying offer
• Day’Ron Sharpe: Brooklyn Nets – $5.9 million qualifying offer
• Santi Aldama: Memphis Grizzlies – $5.9 million qualifying offer

*Both Davion Mitchell and Quentin Grimes could still reach Starter Criteria. If so, that would see Mitchell’s and Grimes’ qualifying offers come in at $8.7 million.

Looking at this group, we can pretty confidently take Ziaire Williams, Tre Mann and Isaiah Jackson out of the mix. If any of those three players receive their qualifying offer, they’d do well to simply sign it. Mann and Jackson are coming off season-ending injuries, while Williams simply hasn’t produced at a level worth $7.9 million.

That leaves seven players in the balance. Of the remaining seven players, Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe are in a somewhat weird spot. They both play for the Brooklyn Nets, who happen to be the only team that is projected to have cap space this summer. So, their situation won’t likely be driven by offer sheets, since the most a team could offer them would be the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Now we’re down to five players. And those five all have pretty interesting situations.

Josh Giddey and Jonathan Kuminga both have enough prospect shine left on them to make them “future investment” candidates. Quentin Grimes has certainly shown enough with Philadelphia that we’ll put him in the same category.

Davion Mitchell and Santi Aldama are both high-end rotation players, but haven’t established themselves as starters yet.

Now, as we referenced above, market factors heavily influence restricted free agency. In this case, only one team having cap space is going to make it really tough on the 2025 RFA group.

Could the Nets throw a big offer sheet at Giddey, Kuminga or Grimes? Sure. All of them are young enough and talented enough to go that route. 

It's worth pausing here to note that Sean Marks has played in restricted free agency when he’s had cap space before. The Nets gave offer sheets to Allen Crabbe, Tyler Johnson and Otto Porter Jr. several years ago. All three offer sheets were matched, but Marks isn’t afraid to force a rival team to pay up to keep their players.

In the case of Kuminga and Grimes, both of their incumbent teams (Warriors and 76ers, respectively) are facing luxury tax and apron issues. If Brooklyn gave either Kuminga or Grimes anything approaching a max offer sheet (projected starting salary of $38.7 million in 2025-26), their current teams might blink at matching.

Giddey is in a bit of a different spot. He’s kind of, sort of as close to the centerpiece of the Bulls young core as they have. Giddey has been solid all season, but since the calendar flipped to 2025, he’s gone to a different level. In 32 games since January 1, Giddey has averaged 15.4 points on 48/44/82 shooing splits, 8.4 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 1.4 steals per game. If you believe in that shooting, combined with the other production, that’s approaching max contract territory.

Here’s the challenge though: Giddey, Kuminga and Grimes will be 23, 23 and 25 at the start of the 2025-26 season. That’s hardly ancient, but given that the Nets are in the early stages of their rebuild, that would be a major commitment for any of these three players.

And therein lies the issue for the 2025 RFA group: The Nets are the only team that can realistically sign any of the RFAs to an offer sheet that would cause their teams to have to swallow hard while making a decision to match.

That means, as per usual, most of the 2025 RFA group is likely to re-sign with their own team. A couple could change teams via sign-and-trade, but that’s really hard to project.

As we project the next contract for each of the pending RFAs, we’re going to assume they’ll be re-signing with their current teams. We’re using a combination of history combined with updated market factors, as well as future improvement forecasts to drive these projections.

Josh Giddey

Projected Next Contract: four years, $108 million

Analysis: Considering the Bulls gave Patrick Williams $18 million a year over five years, and he’s never shown as much as Giddey has, we’re bumping Giddey’s number up. We’re also knocking a year off, as Giddey isn’t going to fetch a player option on his final season, so he’ll likely only want to lock in for four years.

Jonathan Kuminga

Projected Next Contract: four years, $100 million

Analysis: Kuminga has been less reliable than Giddey, but he’s got higher upside. Kuminga still has “primary scorer on a good team” potential. He’s also the best, and last, of the Warriors “two timelines” prospects left. This is a pretty heavy investment, but Kuminga is worth nearly as much as the more-proven Giddey, simply given the untapped upside he still has.

Davion Mitchell

Projected Next Contract: four years, $40 million

Analysis: Mitchell has been solid enough as a backup point guard. When you adjust for his ability to also start, Mitchell’s value bumps just shy of the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount. The Heat don’t have a lot of point guard depth and Miami values locking players up on long-term team-friendly deals when they can.

Ziaire Williams

Projected Next Contract: Veteran Minimum

Analysis: Williams has played better with Nets, but he’s unlikely to get tendered a qualifying offer. That will make him an unrestricted free agent. From there, Williams will probably have to take a minimum deal to continue finding his way in the NBA.

Tre Mann

Projected Next Contract: two years, $11 million

Analysis: Mann has shown he can score and can be an NBA rotation player. Getting hurt this year really killed his chances at getting a bigger deal. Had he stayed healthy, he might have been looking at something in the range of $10-15 million AAV. As it stands, he’s likely to be more in the range of the Taxpayer MLE, if even that. Charlotte likely won’t issue the combo guard the qualifying offer. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Mann had to take a minimum deal and work his way back from there.

Isaiah Jackson

Projected Next Contract: Veteran Minimum

Analysis: Jackson will be coming of a torn Achilles. If he had stayed healthy, there was a good chance Jackson would have landed a deal around $8-10 million AAV. Now, he’ll likely have to take a minimum deal to prove he’s healthy. Also, don’t expect Indiana to tender a qualifying offer to Jackson. If they do, he’d be smart to sign it immediately.

Quentin Grimes

Projected Next Contract: four years, $100 million

This one is based on potential, need and fit with the 76ers. Because of their cap/tax/apron situation, it’s going to be hard for Philadelphia to add outside talent for the next few years. That means it’s imperative to keep a guy like Grimes. $25 million AAV might seem like a lot, but Grimes has shown he can do more than just being a 3&D guy. He should also be a really solid fit with Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain in a three-guard rotation for the Sixers moving forward.

Cam Thomas

Projected Next Contract: three years, $45 million

Analysis: Thomas can score. He’s a better playmaker than most realize. The Nets aren’t in a position to let young talent walk out the door, but Brooklyn can’t start overpaying guys yet either. Unless there’s a team that falls in love and wants to work a sign-and-trade deal for Thomas, expect Brooklyn to get him back on a solid value contract. Think what Coby White signed for, plus a bit to represent the new cap environment. From there, it’s up to Thomas to outplay the deal, much like White has.

Day’Ron Sharpe

Projected Next Contract: three years, $30 million

Analysis: Sharpe is essentially the big man equivalent of teammate Cam Thomas. The Nets can’t just let him walk, but bigs don’t generally get paid as much as scoring wings/guards do. And Brooklyn already has Nic Claxton and Noah Clowney under contract too. That’ll push Sharpe’s deal down a bit, but he should still get a nice payday.

Santi Aldama

Projected Next Contract: four years, $60 million

Analysis: This is essentially the equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE. Aldama has improved every year he’s been in the league, and that’s maintained as his role has grown. The Grizzlies cap situation is getting a bit tight, especially when you factor in Jaren Jackson Jr. is due a new starting in 2026-27. This could be one where another team works a sign-and-trade, that way Memphis can keep their books in order, but doesn’t lose Aldama for nothing. Think the equivalent to Grant Williams leaving the Boston Celtics for the Dallas Mavericks a few years back.

Viktor Hovland wins the Valspar Championship. Hovland earns $1.57 million million bringing his 2025 on-course earnings to $1.82 million and his career earnings to $66.2 million. 

Valspar Championship Top 10 Payouts

This year NWSL Free Agency is coming quicker than ever and is only 103 days away (as of March 20th). Teams have until June 30th to exercise player options, and must have their decision lists to the league by 12pm EST. July 1st the free agency window opens up and players can sign with new teams for 2026 as soon as they want. 

Last year’s free agency was pulled in from where it was at the end of season in 2023, but no players signed with new teams until their 2024 seasons had concluded. With the free agency window pulling in even further this year, it will be interesting to see who (if anyone) signs with a new team mid-season. 

Not including the players currently on short-term contracts or players with 2026 options, there are 125 free agents slated for the July free agency period. Here are ten players to watch for potential extensions (alphabetically):

Ary Borges (Racing Louisville, Midfielder)

Current Contract: Signed a three-year contract with Racing in December 2022

Borges played in 14 matches for Racing in 2024, with one goal and two assists. She missed 11 matches in the front half of the season dealing with a knee injury. She averaged over 80% passing accuracy in her initial two seasons in Louisville. 

Sam Coffey (Portland Thorns, Midfielder)

Current Contract: Signed a three-year extension with Portland in November 2022

With the retirement of Christine Sinclair and Becky Sauerbrunn, Coffey has stepped up in 2025 and is wearing the Captain’s armband for Thorns. In 2024, she played in 25 matches for the Thorns with over 2000 minutes on the pitch as the pivotal six connecting Portland’s backline and attack — in the process scoring two goals, and earning three assists. 

Michelle Cooper (Kansas City Current, Forward)

Current Contract: Signed a three-year contract in February 2023 following being drafted No. 2 overall in the 2023 NWSL Collegiate Draft

In 2024, Cooper played in 23 matches for the Current, scoring three goals, creating 25 chances, and earning three assists. She started the 2025 campaign off with a bang, scoring what ended up being the game winning goal for KC in the season opener against Portland. 

Taylor Flint (Racing Louisville, Midfielder)

Current Contract: In January 2024 restructured terms in a two-year deal with Racing following her trade from San Diego

Played in all but two regular season matches for Racing in 2024, earned an 80% aerial duel success, had 64 clearances, 74 interceptions, in addition to three goals and one assist. In the season opener last Saturday, Flint won 11 of 12 aerial duels (91.7%) — the most aerial duels contested in a match with a 90%-plus success rate since Opta began detailed data collection of the NWSL in 2016.

Kaleigh Kurtz (North Carolina Courage, Defender)

Current Contract: Signed a three-year extension with the Courage in November 2022. 

In 2024 Kurtz completed her third consecutive Ironwoman season (played every minute of every match). She was fifth in the league in clearances with 124 and had 23 interceptions, 117 possessions won, and an 86% passing accuracy. Kurtz even had the game winning goal against Utah. Additionally, Kurtz has been on a Best XI team in 2022 (2nd team), 2023 (2nd team), and 2024 (1st team), as well as being a finalist for Defender of the Year two years running. 

Diana Ordonez (Houston Dash, Forward)

Current Contract: Signed a new three-year deal with the Houston Dash in February 2023 following her trade from North Carolina. 

Ordonez was the main goalscorer for the struggling Houston Dash in 2024, leading the team with five goals, and also had 12 chances created. She suffered a shoulder injury late in the season which caused her to miss the final two matches of the regular season following a successful surgery in late October — she also started the 2024 regular season still on the season ending injury. 

Trinity Rodman (Washington Spirit, Forward)

Current Contract: Signed a four-year extension with the Spirit in February 2022.

Rodman’s five goals, two assists, and 20 chances created for the Spirit in 2024 were enough to put her on the Best XI team for the second year in a row (and third time overall). Just as impressive as her attacking prowess on the wing is her 35 interceptions and 146 possessions won on the defensive side. Her phenomenal 2024 as a whole made her one of the five finalists for the NWSL Most Valuable Player award.

Rafaelle Souza (Orlando Pride, Defender)

Current Contract: Signed a two-and-a-half year contract with the Orlando Pride in July 2023. 

Rafaelle’s 2024 was likely not what was planned as the centerback only played in nine matches and missed 22 matches battling a number of leg injuries (foot, thigh, quad). During those nine matches, she had an 89% passing accuracy, 27 clearances, and 38 possessions won. She started Orlando’s regular season opener where they held the Chicago Stars scoreless and had an impressive 91% passing accuracy. 

Mina Tanaka (Utah Royals)

Previous Contract: Signed a year-and-a-half long contract with the Utah Royals in July 2024. 

After joining the Royals in the Secondary Window, Tanaka played in seven matches, scoring 1 goal, and creating 10 chances. Tanaka had an impressive 89% tackle success, 21 possessions won, and an 81% passing accuracy. She played a pivotal role in the Royals dramatic change between the front and back half of their inaugural season. 

Kennedy Wesley (San Diego Wave, Defender)

Previous Contract: Signed a two-year contract in February 2024 following being drafted in the first round by San Diego in the 2024 NWSL Collegiate Draft. 

As a rookie, the centerback played in 13 matches, tallying up 1000 minutes and had 46 clearances, 47 possessions won, an 85% passing accuracy, and even scored the lone goal in Alex Morgan’s farewell match. With the departure of Naomi Girma she now the starting centerback and played a solid 90 against Angel City in last weekend’s opener. 

Bill Chishom, managing partner of Symphony Technology Group, has agreed to purchase the Boston Celtics at a $6.1 billion valuation. This is the richest purchase price for a North American sports team.

Chisholm grew up on the North Shore of Massachusetts and is a lifelong Celtics fan. Forbes estimated Chisholm to have a net worth of $7.5 billion.

The Grousbeck family, led by Wyc Grousbeck, purchased the Celtics for $360 million in 2002. They put the team up for sale this summer, shortly after the Celtics captured their record 18th NBA title.

The Celtics face questions for their new ownership group in the coming years. Boston is set to have the largest payroll, plus tax bill, in the NBA next season. The Celtics are looking at coming at over $500 million for salaries plus tax penalties. There are also questions about the team's arena situation, as the Celtics currently share TD Garden with the Boston Bruins.

The $6.1 billion valuation is also important for the NBA as a whole. Adam Silver has said that the league is looking at expansion, but the NBA was slow-playing that process. Part of the reason for that was assumed to be hoping the Celtics sale would set a benchmark for expansion teams. Now, the NBA can condifently expect to receive large bids when they do open formally open the expansion process.

Rory McIlroy wins THE PLAYERS Championship. McIlroy earns $4.5 million million bringing his 2025 on-course earnings to $8.7 million and his career earnings to $181.2 million. 

THE PLAYERS Championship Top 10 Payouts

Joaquin Niemann wins the fourth LIV Golf event of 2024 at Singapore and earns $4 million. 

Singapore Top 10

The Minnesota Vikings kept their foot on the gas pedal this week, agreeing to acquire RB Jordan Mason from the San Francisco 49ers. Minnesota will send back a 5th Round pick (#160) in the upcoming draft, and a 6th Round pick in 2026, while the Vikings will bring back pick #187 (a 6th-Rounder) as well.

Mason was scheduled to earn a $5.346M 2nd-Round restricted free agent tender in 2025, but the Vikings have announced a 2 year, $12M contract extension for the 25-year-old that includes $7M fully guaranteed. He joins veteran Aaron Jones (who signed a 2 year, $20M extension of his own) as a strong 1-2 punch in Minnesota going forward.

San Francisco on the other hand continues their mini-purge this offseason, freeing up all $5.3M of Mason's salary in the move. The Niners are still in good hands at the running back position of course, as Christian McCaffrey is signed through the 2027 season (mostly guaranteed through 2025).

Jordan Mason's contract extension checks in at 2 years, $10.5M and includes $7.23M fully guaranteed. He'll earn $5.5M in 2025 (just north of his previous tender), and can add $1.5M to the deal based on rushing yards.

The 93rd minute substitution for Mak Whitman in Gotham's season opener Saturday night in Seattle made her the youngest ever player to debut in the NWSL at 14 years, 8 months old. The title was previously held by San Diego's Melanie Barcenas.

Whitman signed her contract with Gotham for the 2025+ season in July 2024 when she was still technically 13. She played with Gotham as a national team replacement player during the NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup which was held overlapping with the 2024 Paris Olympics, at which point she was 14 years, 1 day old. 

The 2024 NWSL Midfielder of the Year and 2024 NWSL Rookie of the Year Croix Bethune returned to the active roster today ahead of the Washington Spirit's season opener against the Houston Dash tonight 192 days after joining the 2024 Season-Ending Injury list with a torn meniscus. 

Bethune was selected third overall in the 2024 Collegiate Draft by the Washington Spirit, and her impact on the pitch for the Spirit was felt immediately. She earned three straight Rookie of the Month awards for her performances on the pitch, which included assisting three goals in the May matchup against Chicago and then later in the month breaking the rookie assist record. After coming back from the Olympic break (with a Gold Medal), Bethune earned her tenth assist, tying the league record for assists in a season set by Tobin Heath back in 2016—she also had scored five goals for the Spirit by this point. In an unfortunate turn, just a few days later she tore her meniscus and joined the league’s Season Ending Injury list. 

The details of Josh Allen’s 6 year, $330M renegotiated contract with the Buffalo Bills have been revealed and, as expected, they’re relatively massive.

The Overall Structure

Allen secures a $56.745M signing bonus (9th highest all-time), plus 3 consecutive option bonuses. This structure is utilized to keep cap figures lower early on in the contract - though as we’ll detail soon, not as low as they could have been in this particular case.

There are large March roster bonuses built into the final two years of the season, a good indicator that the player/agent will look to extend out of this contract again prior to the 2030 season (or pressure on the Bills to get out of the deal early if things are going in that direction).

The deal includes VERY aggressive cash flow, and a bit more room to maneuver than the majority of blockbuster deals we’ve seen in the past.

The Cash Flow

Historic. Allen secured $220M over the next 4 seasons, $1M more than Dak Prescott locked down with Dallas last summer, and $90M more than Allen was previously scheduled to earn on his prior contract.

He’ll see $58M in 2025, $113MM through year 2 (2nd all-time to Prescott), and $166M through year 3 (2nd all-time to Prescott).

6-Year Cash Flow
2025: $58M
2026: $55M
2027: $53M
2028: $54M
2029: $52.5M
2030: $57.5M

For a little clarity, yes, Josh Allen’s $55M APY ties him for 2nd with Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, & Trevor Lawrence. But these players were extending out of a rookie contract to secure that number - which means there were previous years and cash built into that new deal. Burrow’s 4-year cash APY is $45.4M. For Love it’s $46.5M, and for Lawrence it’s only $38.8M.

Allen’s $220M through 2028 means he’ll earn a true $55M per year over that span.

The Guarantee Structure

$147M of the $330M total is guaranteed at signing, comprised of:
Signing Bonus: $56.745M
2025 Salary: $1.255M
2026 Salary/Bonus: $54.5M
2026 Salary: $34.5M

It’s the second most guaranteed signing in NFL history, behind only Deshaun Watson’s $230M. However, if we compare this number to the total value of the contract, Allen slips down the list quite a bit:

% of Contract Guaranteed at Signing

In total, $250M of this $330M contract is guaranteed, as $18M of 2027 salary locks in next March, $53.5M of 2028 salary locks in March of 2027, $14M of 2029 salary locks in March of 2028, and a final $17.5M becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2029. The $250M total guarantee is the most in NFL history, soaring past Dak Prescott’s $231M previous high mark.

The Salary Cap Flow

Here’s where things get a little tricky. Generally speaking, a huge contract with 4 prorated bonuses offers the team a substantial amount of salary cap relief early on. The Bills chose not to go this route - at least initially. What does that mean?

Out of the gate, some of these initial cap figures look daunting, if not downright terrifying. However, Allen’s $41.3M cap hit this year represents less than 15% of the league salary cap. That balloons to over 20% next year based on projections, but then decreases nicely through 2028. Even small salary conversion adjustments over the next 3 offseasons will keep Allen’s cap hit in the teens in terms of percentages, which should allow Buffalo the opportunity to continue to build and grow appropriately.

2025 - $41,335,281
Allen receives a $56.745M signing bonus that spreads out over 5 years, and a veteran minimum $1.255M base salary. Everything about this year is as minimized as possible for salary cap purposes. Allen’s cap hit for the upcoming season stands at $41.3M, which represents $3.9M of savings from his previous contract.

2026- $61,388,000
There’s a $38M option bonus available that when exercised will spread out over 5 years for cap purposes, but Allen is also due a $16.5M base salary in 2026. This is $15.2M more than the veteran minimum next season ($1.3M). If Buffalo processes a simple salary conversion next March, they can lower the cap hit down to $49.3M, saving over $12M of room.

Now you get the picture. After 2025, Josh Allen has base salaries that are significantly higher than the minimum for that particular season, giving Buffalo room/option to maneuver a little bit as needed.

Base Salary vs. Minimum Salary

The Practical Outcome

Assuming Allen and the Bills are still in a good place a few years down the road here, the logical time to start looking sideways at this contract will be the 2029 year, which currently boasts an $86.15M cap figure. That number is likely to increase with a cap conversion or two over the next few offseasons, likely making it an untenable cap hit to enter March with.

Will Buffalo be comfortable processing another conversion that late into the contract? Or will it make more sense to bail out on the final two years of this contract and freshen Allen’s pot a bit?

If Allen is still an MVP-caliber quarterback, the Bills will most likely be motivated to start over again prior to the 2029 season. If there’s even a sliver of doubt with their multi-year future, I think it stands to reason that this contract is allowed to play out through 2029 (5 years, $272.5M), after which an extension can be negotiated.

Here’s what we know for sure: Allen will be earning (at least) $220M over the course of the next 4 seasons (TBD incentives are available as well) - more than any NFL player has ever earned over a 4-year span. So while he may have left a few million per year (the math says around $7M) on the table, the structure of this contract certainly benefits him where it counts most - cash in hand.