The Las Vegas Raiders made the latest trade splash, agreeing to acquire QB Geno Smith from the Seattle Seahawks in exchange for a 2025 3rd Round pick (#92 overall). Smith brings with him a $31M salary for the upcoming season, $16M of which is set to vest on March 16th. However, it is largely expected that an extension will be processed soon after the league year begins next Wednesday. The 34-year-old projects toward a 2 year, $87M extension in our system, after reeling in $50M in Seattle over the past two seasons.

Seattle on the other hand frees up another $31M of cap space with this move, now sitting with $62M of Top 51 room (7th most in the NFL). Their plans at the QB position are now TBD, though a free agent pitch for Sam Darnold may be in the cards. Sam Howell (1 year, $1.1M), Jaren Hall (1 year, $1.03M), & John Rhys Plumlee (1 year, $840k) are rostered Seahawks quarterbacks currently.

The MLS has released the updated General Allocation Money (GAM) amounts per team based on Feb 28, 2025.

The calendar has flipped to March which signals extension time in Major League Baseball and Spotrac examined 10 pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players that could be considered for long term deals before Opening Day and beyond.

Note:  These extensions typically include Club options, or Player opt-outs in certain situations . Predictions are only an estimate of potential guarantees and do not account for additional option years or opt-out scenarios.

RELATED: 
MLB Pre-Arbitration Extensions
MLB Arbitration Extensions

Jackson Merrill (OF - SDP)

Merrill blew away expectations in his first season, leading all rookies in hits (162), extra-base hits (61), RBIs (90), batting average (.292) and slugging percentage (.500). He became only the 16th rookie to win a Silver Slugger (since 1980) and finished 9th in MVP voting as a 21-year-old. The most impressive part? He did it while switching from shortstop to centerfield, a position he had never played professionally. We later discovered that San Diego had engaged in extension talks before Merrill debuted but nothing materialized. The baseline for a deal at that point might have been similar to the 8 year, $82 million extension Jackson Chourio signed prior to his first game. Now a Merrill extension could land somewhere between Corbin Carroll (8 year, $13.875M AAV) and Julio Rodriguez (12 year, $17.4M+ AAV). Perhaps the ownership battle complicates any short term spending but we know the Padres will commit to cornerstone players as we saw with Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340M).

Prediction:  7 years, $119M ($17M+ AAV); through age 28 season buying out two UFA years

Adley Rutschman (C - BAL)

This could easily have been Gunnar Henderson but it might already be too late for an extension on the heels of his 9 WAR season. Instead, Baltimore could try to lock up a different core piece in backstop Adley Rutschman. The former 1st overall pick will make $5.5M in 2025 and is on pace to earn an additional $20M across his final two years of arbitration. Negotiations will get increasingly difficult as Rutschman inches towards free agency in 2027 so the Orioles should move quickly if they have any hope of an extension. The organization has not made a long term commitment to a player under team control since Adam Jones in 2013 but there’s optimism the new ownership group could take a different approach with their top young players. Top prospect (C) Samuel Basallo is ready to contribute but likely shifts to 1B/DH at some point making him less of a long term replacement option for Rutschman.

Prediction:  6 years, $90M ($15M AAV); through age 32 season buying out three UFA years

Justin Steele (SP - CHC)

Steele received Cy Young votes after a breakout 2023 season and finished 2024 in similar form despite an early season hamstring injury suffered in the Cubs first game. In fact, his 2.65 ERA from June onward was on par with eventual Cy Young winners Chris Sale (2.53) and Tarik Sukbal (2.59) in that same period. With three full seasons until free agency, Steele might be incentivized to sign an extension and avoid hitting the market at age 32. His 2025 salary ($6.55M) is an obvious bargain for Chicago but that value will jump significantly in the final two years of team control. For example, Framber Valdez made $6.8M as a second year Super Two and $30.1M over the next two seasons. Steele has been with the organization since 2014 and the Cubs could view him as the piece to build around with Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Matt Boyd all likely off the payroll after 2026. A long term agreement could land near the 7 year, $131 extension Jose Berrios signed in 2022.

Prediction:  6 years / $105M (17.5 AAV); through age 34 season buying out three UFA years

Elly De La Cruz (SS - CIN)

Over a decade has passed since Joey Votto signed a 10 year, $225M contract with Cincinnati but there is at least precedent for a huge commitment to a cornerstone player within the organization. De La Cruz could be next after producing the Reds best offensive season (6.4 WAR) since 2015 but they would need to move fast before another MVP-caliber season skyrockets the value. But there is reason for optimism on a long term extension. De La Cruz signed a deal with the firm Big League Advantage (BLA) in 2018 and received a loan in exchange for 10% of his future earnings. Why is that important? Despite a relatively small footprint in MLB, several BLA players have already signed significant early career extensions including Fernando Tatis Jr., Keibert Ruiz, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela and Christopher Sanchez. Perhaps De La Cruz receives similar guidance and seeks an early guarantee which could potentially land anywhere between Wander Franco (11 years, $182M) and Bobby Witt Jr. (11 years, $288M+)

Prediction:  11 years, $275M ($25M AAV); through age 33 season buying out six UFA years

Mason Miller (RP - ATH)

This seemed unthinkable as recently as November but the Athletics finally added payroll this offseason after years of relative inactivity. They signed Luis Severino via free agency but the 5 year, $60M arbitration extension for Brent Rooker is more important for this specific conversation considering it was the organization’s first long term agreement with a player under control since Trevor Cahill in 2011. We know they won’t fundamentally change how they handle cost controlled players but the A’s could utilize an expanded payroll to target situations that might produce long term savings. That would be the thought process with Miller, who established himself as perhaps the most dominant closer in MLB last year leading all qualified relievers in strikeout rate (41.8%) and K/9 (14.4). His pre-arbitration salary is a huge value this year but the next four seasons will get expensive. Miller will qualify for arbitration as a Super Two starting in 2026 and Josh Hader made $35.875M across his four arbitration seasons despite some early career usage detractors. He should have no issue clearing that total assuming health and similar results.

Prediction:  6 years, $45M (7.5M AAV); through age 31 season buying out one UFA year

Riley Greene (OF - DET)

The former 5th overall pick largely underwhelmed across his first two seasons but got on track last year ranking 20th in WRC+ (135) among all hitters. Detroit already signed Colt Keith through at least 2029 and could continue focusing on internal extensions after missing out on top free agents in recent off seasons. Riley is eligible for arbitration next year and free agency in 2029 but the Tigers could extend him now to ensure he’s part of the long term core as they keep building towards a potential Max Clark in 2027.

Prediction:  7 years, $92M ($13.1M+ AAV); through age 30 season buying out three UFA years

Gabriel Moreno (C - ARI) 

We know the Diamondbacks are open to these extensions, having signed Corbin Carroll in 2023 and Geraldo Perdomo earlier this offseason, and they could be searching for additional cost certainty amidst their highest ever payrolls in 2024 and 2025. Moreno is the next best candidate following an impressive but not expensive start to his young career. He provides above average offense and Gold Glove defense but lacks the counting stats that command high arbitration salaries making it more likely he’d prioritize an immediate guarantee rather than risk taking it year-to-year. Moreno could realistically target a deal approaching the 6 year, $73M extension Sean Murphy signed in his first year of arbitration.

Prediction:  7 years, $84M ($12M AAV); through age 31 season buying out three UFA years

Roman Anthony (OF - BOS)

This is a long shot but not unrealistic considering the low service time extensions signed by premium prospects in recent years. We saw Boston take this approach last April signing Ceddanne Rafaela to an 8 year, $50M extension following just 28 games in 2023 and they should consider something similar with Anthony who is the consensus top position prospect in baseball. Prospect Promotion Incentive could also factor in here and the Red Sox know how valuable those picks can be having drafted Roman Anthony with compensation from Eduardo Rodriguez.

Prediction:  8 years, $85M ($10.625 AAV); through age 28 season buying out two UFA years

Cade Smith (RP - CLE)

Cleveland extended Emmanuel Clase after a breakout rookie season but before establishing himself as one of the elite closers in MLB. They could try something similar with Cade Smith who showed comparable upside in his first full season. Think of Mason Miller but without the saves driving up his cost, although Smith could be a 9th inning option if Cleveland makes Clase available ahead of increasing Club option salaries in 2026/2027.

Prediction: 5 years, $15M ($3M AAV); through age 30 season buying out remaining years of Club control

Wyatt Langford (OF - TEX)

The Rangers have shown they’re willing to spend in free agency but that strategy is difficult to sustain long term. At some point they’ll need to lock in some cost controlled savings and that should start with an extension for the former 4th overall pick. His five tool profile has superstar potential and Texas likely saw enough in his first full season to at least discuss a long term extension before he starts earning MVP votes.

Prediction:  8 years, $100M ($12.5M AAV); through age 30 season buying out three UFA years

The Jacksonville Jaguars were prepared to release WR Christian Kirk, sending him to the open market before the start of the league year. However, the Houston Texans have reportedly swooped in at the final hour, agreeing to send the Jaguars a 2026 7th round pick in return for Kirk.

The 28-year-old WR is entering the final year of his contract, set to earn a non-guaranteed $16.5M for the upcoming season. Barring a renegotiation, Houston will acquire a $16.2M cap hit for 2025, while Jacksonville will take on a $10.5M dead cap hit per the move.

The Cincinnati Bengals are allowing star DE Trey Hendrickson to test the trade waters this week, setting up what could be another blockbuster move at the start of the league year.

Hendrickson (36 sacks, 5 forced fumbles across the past 2 seasons), is entering a contract year in 2025, set to earn a non-guaranteed $16M. With edge defender numbers rising daily (Maxx Crosby $35.5M APY), Hendrickson's contract demands likely outpriced the Bengals, who are actively trying to lock down their top two wide receivers this spring.

The 30-year-old projects toward a 2 year, $61M extension in our system. His trade would leave behind just $2,666,666 of dead cap to Cincy, freeing the $16M. There is expected to be significant interest around the league.

The Browns converted $44.745M of Deshaun Watson's 2025 salary into signing bonus, creating $35.79M of cap space. It's the third consecutive salary conversion for Watson's albatross of a contract, pushing future cap hits (and voidable dead cap) into historic tiers.

New Cap Hits (corresponding dead cap)
2025: $36.9M ($172.3M)
2026: $81.6M ($135.4M)
2027: $53.7M (void)

Cleveland is now salary cap compliant for 2025, currently holding $12.8M of Top 51 space. Will the Browns be willing to take on $135.4M of dead cap ($46M cash) next offseason to move on from Deshaun Watson? Even as a Post 6/1 move, the numbers would be historic 

C Mitch Morse announced his retirement from the NFL after 10 seasons spent with the Chiefs, Bills, & Jaguars. The former 2nd round pick earned just under $64M on the field, foregoing the final $4.65M available on his current contract.

The Jaguars will take on a $3.2M dead cap hit per the retirement, creating $2.25M of cap space for the upcoming season.

With news out of Seattle that DK Metcalf has formally requested a trade this offseason, we take a look at previously processed trades from the last 10 years that involved a notable wide receiver age 27-28, including acquired contract details and the future outlooks for each.

Spoiler: The Acquired Contract Matters (with the exception of Tyreek Hill)

Browns Acquire Odell Beckham Jr. from the Giants

March 13, 2019
Browns Get: Beckham Jr., Olivier Vernon
Giants Get: Jabrill Peppers, Kevin Zeitler, 1st, 3rd Rd Picks

Acquired Contract
5 years, $74M remaining
Beckham Jr. would play out 2 years, $31.2M of the deal before a midseason release in 2021.

Bills Acquire Stefon Diggs from the Vikings

March 16, 2020
Bills Get: Diggs, 7th Rd Pick
Vikings Get: 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th Rd Picks

Acquired Contract
4 years, $57.1M remaining
Diggs played out 2 years, $30M on the deal before signing a 4 year, $96M extension in Buffalo.

Cardinals Acquire DeAndre Hopkins from the Texans

March 16, 2020
Cardinals Get: Hopkins, 4th Rd Pick
Texans Get: David Johnson, 2nd, 4th Rd Picks

Acquired Contract
3 years, $40M remaining
Hopkins agreed to a 2 year, $54M extension with Arizona a few months after the trade, locking into a 5 year, $89M total value contract. He would play out 3 years, $55M before a 2023 release.

Texans Acquire Brandin Cooks from the Rams

April 9, 2020
Texans Get: Cooks, 4th Rd Pick
Rams Get: 2nd Rd Pick

Acquired Contract
3 years, $35M remaining (Rams retained $4M)
Cooks played out 2 years, $21M on the deal before signing a 2 year, $40M extension.

Browns Acquire Amari Cooper from the Cowboys

March 16, 2022
Browns Get: Cooper, 6th Rd Pick
Cowboys Get: 5th, 6th Rd Picks

Acquired Contract
3 years, $60M remaining
Cooper played out 2 ½ years on the contract in Cleveland before the Browns shipped him to Buffalo to finish out 2024 (retaining almost all of the remaining salary).

Dolphins Acquire Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs

March 23, 2022
Dolphins Get: Hill
Chiefs Get: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 6th Rd Pick

Acquired Contract
1 year, $18M remaining
Hill agreed to a 4 year, $120M extension as part of the trade.

Jaguars Acquire Calvin Ridley from the Falcons

November 1, 2022
Jaguars Get: Ridley
Falcons Get: 3rd, 5th Rd Picks

Acquired Contract
1 year, $11.1M remaining
Ridley played out the contract then signed a 4 year, $92M free agent contract with the Titans that offseason.

Bears Acquire D.J. Moore from the Panthers

March 10, 2023
Bears Get: Moore, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd Rd Picks
Panthers Get: #1 Overall 2023 Pick

Acquired Contract
3 years, $52.22M remaining
Moore played out 1 year, $20.1M before agreeing to a 4 year, $110M contract extension in Chicago.

The Atlanta Falcons (currently -$5M of cap space) have been vocal about their intent to keep QB Kirk Cousins in 2025, despite the expectation that Michael Penix Jr. will take over the QB1 reins. Cousins is owed a fully guaranteed $27.5M for the upcoming season, with $65M of dead cap sitting on the deal. If he's on the roster March 16th, a $10M bonus for 2026 becomes fully guaranteed as well. Let's lay out a few options:

A Standard Pre-March 16 Trade
It seems unlikely, but if Atlanta can find a dance partner to take on Cousins' contract, the Falcons would take on a $37.5M dead cap hit in 2025, but free themselves of any salary owed. The acquiring team would take on:

2025: $27.5M (fully guaranteed)
2026: $45M ($10M guarantees March 16th)
2027: $45M

A Salary-Retained Trade (Pre-March 16)
A slightly more possible option is that the Falcons agree to eat a portion of Cousins' $27.5M salary in order to facilitate a trade. Anything more than $2.5M retained would result in Atlanta taking a cap loss on the move, but the juice still might be worth the squeeze when including less money paid out, and a draft pick coming back in return.

A Standard Post June 1st Release (Pre-March 16)
The Falcons will keep Cousins' $40M cap hit on the books into June, then take on dead hits of $40M for 2025, $25M for 2026.

A Conversion + Post June 1st Release (Pre-March 16)
The Falcons convert $26.245M of Cousins' salary into signing bonus, then designate him a Post 6/1 release. They carry his updated $19M cap hit into June, then take on dead hits of $19M in 2025, $46M in 2026.

The Post-March 16th Move
Everything jumps up by $10M (including the cash owed). A trade becomes even less likely (if not impossible), and the total dead cap now sits at $75M.

The Actually Keep Him Move
We'll play along here. The Falcons decide to keep Cousins as a backup/QB1 competitor, paying him the $27.5M in 2025, allowing the $10M in 2026 to vest. If they don't touch the contract any further (no cap conversions), it will hold $35M of dead cap after 2025, the cost to release the nearly 38-year-old before another $10M bonus becomes guaranteed in early March 2027. If the Falcons process any sort of conversion on Cousins' current $40M cap hit, it will increase this $35M dead cap hit respectively. 

The Los Angeles Chargers are set to make a significant move Thursday, releasing 9-year veteran edge rusher Joey Bosa out of the final year of his contract. LAC will take on an $11.1M dead cap hit, freeing up a whopping $25.36M of space for the upcoming season.

The Chargers now hold around $90M of Top 51 cap space, with 45 contracts on the books. They are largely expected to be active both in free agency and the trade market this month.

Bosa earned just under $143M through his nine seasons in SD/LA.