Next Contract Series: Pascal Siakam

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertOctober 07, 2022
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When Pascal Siakam inked a rookie scale extension with the Toronto Raptors for the maximum over four years, some were a little unsure if he’d deliver on that deal. Two years in, Siakam has delivered in spades.

Immediately after signing the extension, Siakam turned his first All-NBA season during the 2019-20 season. Two years later, Siakam was named All-NBA again in 2021-22.

Now, the Raptors star is poised to cash in again on his next deal.

Unlike Jaylen Brown, who we covered in our most recent entry of the Next Contract Series, Siakam has already proven he can meet the criteria for a so-called “super max” extension. But we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves.

First, let’s understand what Siakam has left on his current deal with Toronto:

  • 2022-23: $35,448,672
  • 2023-24: $37,893,408

Both years are fully guaranteed with no options for Siakam.

The 6-foot-9 forward’s current four-year extension was a good example of player and team meeting the middle on a deal. Toronto bet Siakam would live up to max money, but didn’t extend all the way to the five-year max. In part, to pay the team’s faith back, Siakam didn’t insist upon a player option on Year 4 of the deal.

Now, the sixth-year player is extension eligible again. But it’s not quite as cut-and-dried as handing Siakam another max deal.

 

The Designated Veteran Extension

Because Siakam already has two All-NBA nods on his resume, he may be best served to wait until after this current season before inking a new deal. Due to only having six years of service, Siakam isn’t eligible yet to sign the “super max” extension for 35% of the salary cap. However, should he repeat his All-NBA performance season (or if he wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year), Siakam could sign the Designated Veteran Extension next offseason.

Here's what that projected extension would look like for Siakam:

  • 2024-25: $50,050,000
  • 2025-26: $54,054,000
  • 2026-27: $58,058,000
  • 2027-28: $62,062,000
  • 2028-29: $66,066,000
  • Total: Five years, $290,290,000

That’s 35% of the $143 million projected cap for 2024-25 with 8% raises on subsequent seasons. Given his status as a then three-time All-NBA player, it’s likely Siakam would negotiate a player option on the final season, as well as a maximum 15% trade bonus.

It’s also important to note that this extension is only available to Siakam from the Raptors. If he was traded, he would not be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension (or Designated Veteran Contract, which we’ll cover next!). These deals are only available to players who re-sign with their original team, or with a team that acquired them during the first four years of their career.

Because Siakam would have just one year left on his current deal, he’d be able to add five years via extension. If you add the nearly $38 million he’s already owed on the final year of his current deal, Siakam would be locked in for nearly $330 million for a six-year period.

The kicker? Siakam has to wait and bet on himself to have another big year in this coming season.

 

The Designated Veteran Contract

Let’s say Siakam doesn’t meet the criteria for the Designated Veteran Extension, but he still believes he’s an All-NBA guy. He could forego an extension entirely and play out his current deal. Then, if Siakam was named All-NBA for the 2023-24 season (or if he won MVP or Defensive Player of the Year), he’d be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Contract in the summer of 2024.

In that case, the deal looks exactly the same as above. 35% of the projected $143 million cap, along with 8% raises. Once again, Siakam should be in position to demand a player option and a 15% trade bonus as well.

Just like with the Designated Veteran Extension, this deal is only available to Siakam from the Raptors.

There is one other fun wrinkle. Because this would be a new contract, as opposed to an extension, Siakam and Toronto could agree to add a “no trade clause” to this deal. Because Siakam would have eight years of service upon signing, and four years with the Raptors, he’s eligible for the fairly rare negotiated no trade clause.

Last note: Upon signing either a Designated Veteran Extension or Designated Veteran Contract, Siakam would be ineligible to be traded for one year.

 

The Veteran Extension

If Pascal Siakam wanted to get an extension done today, he could do that. As of October 1, he was eligible to sign the standard Veteran Extension. That contract would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,900,000
  • 2025-26: $46,332,000
  • 2026-27: $49,764,000
  • Total: Three years, $138,996,000

In a standard Veteran Extension, a player is allowed to sign for 120% of the prior year’s salary, with a cap of their own maximum salary for that season. For Siakam, that limits him to a projected first-year salary of $42,900,000, because that is 30% of the projected $143 million cap for the 2024-25 season.

In addition, at the moment, Siakam would only be able to add three seasons to his deal, because he’s still got two seasons left on his current contract. The deadline for signing this three-year extension is October 17.

If Siakam didn’t make All-NBA this coming season, he could choose to ink a four-year Veteran Extension in the summer of 2023. That would look like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,900,000
  • 2025-26: $46,332,000
  • 2026-27: $49,764,000
  • 2027-28: $53,196,000
  • Total: Four years, $192,192,000

It’s the same first three years as above, but because Siakam would only have one year left on his current deal next summer, he could add four new years via extension.

 

Re-signing with Toronto as a free agent in 2024

Let’s say Siakam doesn’t sign any form of extension and he doesn’t qualify for the Designated Veteran Contract. He can still re-sign with the Raptors as an unrestricted free agent in 2024. He’d be eligible for a five-year contract then, but at 30% of the salary cap.

That deal would like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,900,000
  • 2025-26: $46,332,000
  • 2026-27: $49,764,000
  • 2027-28: $53,196,000
  • 2028-29: $56,628,000
  • Total: Five years, $248,820,000

That’s 30% of the cap, with 8% raises. Like with the other deals, Siakam should be in position to negotiate a player option on the final year, a 15% trade bonus and possibly a no trade clause. The NTC would be available, because this would again be a new contract vs an extension.

 

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2024

If Siakam wanted to leave Toronto, or the Raptors didn’t want to re-sign him, he’d be eligible for to sign a four-year deal with another team. That max deal projects to look like this:

  • 2024-25: $42,900,000
  • 2025-26: $45,045,000
  • 2026-27: $47,190,000
  • 2027-28: $49,335,000
  • Total: Four years, $184,470,000

That deal starts at the same 30% of the projected $143 million cap. However, this deal is limited to 5% raises and only four years.

When comparing it to the standard four-year Veteran Extension, Siakam would be giving up over $7.7 million over the life of the deal. And, he’d be giving up significant money compared to straight re-signing with the Raptors, if you factor in the potential fifth year of a deal.

 

Summary

It’s unlikely Pascal Siakam will sign a standard Veteran Extension before the October 17 deadline. As someone who has made All-NBA in two of the last three seasons, it’s best for Siakam to bet on himself to make All-NBA in either 2023 or 2024. In that case, the versatile forward would be eligible for the super max deal.

If we compare the five-year Designated Veteran Extension or Designated Veteran Contract to straight re-signing with the Raptors, it’s a difference of roughly $41.5 million. That’s enough of a difference to bet on yourself, especially with Siakam’s previous All-NBA selections.

By delaying to signing a Designated Veteran Contract in the summer of 2024 vs a Designated Veteran Extension in the summer of 2023, Siakam would be able to add a no trade clause into his deal. However, it’s unlikely he’d pass up locking in the guaranteed money as soon as he can, even if it’s at the expense of adding a no trade clause. It’s simply to risky. Instead, Siakam can get a 15% trade bonus, should the Raptors want to trade their star.

There are two other things to factor in for Siakam, as well as other players, on his level: The new CBA and the looming cap spike. The NBA is going to have a new CBA, likely as soon as next season. Both the NBA and NBPA have opt-out that they can exercise when this season ends.

While the cap continues to go up, it’s expected to spike again, possibly as soon as 2025 free agency. That’s the year that the new television contracts will kick in. Most teams are preparing for a cap during the 2025-26 league year to be north of $150 million and possibly as high as $160-$165 million.

Both the new CBA (and potential new contract and extension rules) and the cap spike (which will raise new contracts exponentially), will have an impact on what players are willing to sign for over the course of the next year. We may see some players, especially All-NBA-level ones like Pascal Siakam take shorter deals, or eschew extensions entirely, in hopes of cashing in on a bigger payday in a whole new cap environment.


#nba #pascal siakam #pascal siakam
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