AFC West Offseason Financial Analysis

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJanuary 13, 2023
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#denver broncos #kansas city chiefs #las vegas raiders #los angeles chargers
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Our NFL Offseason Series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.



SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Denver Broncos

2023 Cap Space: $12M
Rostered Players: 59
Draft Pick: #5 (traded to SEA), TBD (from SF)

Sources close to me confirm that Year 1 of the Russell Wilson experiment has failed. Out goes the coaching staff, out go a few current players, but this will be a systematic change much more than a roster construction change for the next few seasons.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Jerry Jeudy (WR, 23)
Jeudy put together his best statistical season (67 catches, 972 yards, 6 TDs) just in time to become extension eligible for the first time in his career. His rookie deal contains 1 year, $2.6M (guaranteed) plus an option for 2024. He projects to a 4 year, $80M deal in our system right now.

Bubble Candidate

Ronald Darby (CB, 29)
Enters a contract year in 2023, set to carry a $13M cap hit. The Broncos can free up $10M by moving on at any point of the offseason.

Graham Glasgow (OL, 30)
He’s a serviceable and versatile offensive lineman, but with $11M of his $14M cap hit available to be cleared, he’ll sit on the bubble until further notice.

K.J. Hamler (WR, 23)
He’s hit the IR each of this first three seasons, and the Broncos can free up $1.5M of his $2.2M cap hit this offseason.

Kansas City Chiefs

2023 Cap Space: $14M
Rostered Players: 35
Draft Pick: TBD

The Chiefs sit atop the AFC yet again, but that doesn’t exclude them from some serious offseason questions around the corner at the left tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback positions to name a few.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Chris Jones (DT, 29)
Jones enters a contract year, having done Jones things once again in 2022, set to carry a $28.2M cap hit for the 2023 season. The Chiefs want to lower that hit (and presumably keep him for a few more seasons). Just based on math, Jones projects to a 4 year, $120M extension in our system.

L'Jarius Sneed (CB, 25)
The 2020 4th rounder really established himself in 2022, and enters a contract year for 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. He values toward a 4 year, $32M contract in our system right now.

Bubble Candidate

Frank Clark (DE, 29)
Clark restructured before the 2022 year to stick around, and he played well enough to at least consider doing that again. But with a $31M cap hit versus $9M of dead cap to boot, we’ll error on the side of $22M in savings for now.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, 23)
CEH carries a fully guaranteed $2M in 2023 (his 5th year option is certain to be declined this May), which should be plenty tradable to a team in need. KC can free up $1.5M by trading him at any point in time this offseason.

Las Vegas Raiders

2023 Cap Space: $20M
Rostered Players: 45
Draft Pick: #7

The Derek Carr era is over, despite a core group of contracts signed in the past 18 months (including his). This team is too pot invested to wait for a young QB to grow into it, do they have bigger (older) plans?

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Foster Moreau (TE, 25)
Moreau has been a stable TE2 for this Raiders team, but with Darren Waller’s inconsistency and health issues, LV should be ready to treat him as more than that (and Waller’s replacement for 2024).

Bubble Candidate

Derek Carr (QB, 31)
Carr has already said his goodbyes, so now it’s a matter of trade or release. If it’s release, LV will do so prior to $40.4M more locking in on February 15th ($5.626M of dead cap, $29.25M saved). If they find a trade partner (that Carr agrees to), the numbers will look the same, but the trade won’t process until at least March 15th.

Chandler Jones (DE, 32)
Jones holds a fully guaranteed $17M through 2023, so this is a trade situation only - but it’s not inconceivable. A Pre March 17th trade leaves behind $9.6M of dead cap, freeing up $9.8M of space. It’s possible there’s a team looking to take a 1 year, $17M flier on him.

Los Angeles Chargers

2023 Cap Space: -$10M
Rostered Players: 41
Draft Pick: TBD

Before we get to adjustments on the roster, are we positive the coaching staff is safe for 2023? Once that question is answered, Justin Herbert will need $150M guaranteed.

Notable Free Agents

Extension Candidate

Justin Herbert (QB, 24)
A big playoff run could sweeten this pot even more, but Herbert is now extension eligible for the first time, and seems a slam dunk to lock in a $40M + deal this spring. He projects to a 6 year, $255M extension in our system.

Khalil Mack (OLB, 31)
Mack holds a 2 year, $46.15M non-guaranteed contract right now (which is pretty good coin for him at this stage), but the cap hits ($27.4M, $27.75M) scream restructure. The two sides can turn this into a 4-5 year deal with more flexibility for all.

Bubble Candidate

Gerald Everett (TE, 28)
Everett is a nice fit for this offense, and his $8M cap hit for 2023 isn’t too daunting, but with $4M to be freed up, the Chargers might take a chance on bringing him back cheaper.


#denver broncos #kansas city chiefs #las vegas raiders #los angeles chargers
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