WHAT'S NEXT: San Francisco 49ers

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJanuary 31, 2023
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The 49ers ran out of magic down the stretch, sending them to an offseason full of indecision (seemingly). There are some easy moves on the list (Nick Bosa’s extension, Fred Warner’s restructure), but the right path forward for players like Arik Armstead & Brandon Aiyuk could shake things up a bit. Oh and by the way, there’s that whole QB1 ordeal.

After factoring in reserve/future contracts, the 49ers currently sit with about $5.3M of Top 51 cap space heading into February. Obviously that means work to be done. We’ll uncover some of that here.

RELATED:
49ers 2023 Salary Cap Table
2023 49ers Free Agents

Notable Team Needs

Based on the positional breakdown below:

  • Cornerback & Safety
  • Center
  • Veteran Quarterback
  • Depth Tight Ends
  • Kicker
  • Long Snapper

Potential Restructure & Roster Bubble Candidates

The Quarterback Room

Is currently an in-house Immediate Care.

31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo continues to rehab his foot injury as he nears the open market. It seems a lock that he won’t be back in San Francisco next season. Best story of the season Brock Purdy now begins his work to fix and recover from a full UCL tear this past weekend. None of the $2.95M owed to him over the next 3 seasons is guaranteed. And 2021 1st rounder Trey Lance continues to recover from a serious ankle injury, with his timeline to return still a bit up in the air. Lance holds a fully guaranteed $9M over the next two seasons, plus a 5th-year option in 2025.

There’s an add to be made here this offseason. Will it be a smaller addition to tack on needed depth based on the injury issues, or will this be a spot for a 1-year, start immediately veteran to take the reins for 2023?.

The Running Back Room

Christian McCaffrey holds a non-guaranteed $36.2M over the next 3 seasons, set to earn $12M on a $12M cap hit next year. A full base salary conversation + 2 void years can open up $8.5M of space for the Niners this March.

24-year-old Elijah Mitchell enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, set to earn a non-guaranteed $940k in 2023. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry in 5 games last season. Youngsters ??Jordan Mason & Ty Davis-Price should remain in the fold as capable depth.

 

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has $1.25M of his 2023 salary fully guaranteed right now. He’s set to earn $5.25M against a $6.5M cap hit next year, with 2 years, $12.5M non-guaranteed to follow.

The Wide Receiver Room

Deebo Samuel enters Year 2 of a 4 year, $76M deal, set to earn $11.3M against a team-friendly $8.6M cap hit. He’ll be fully guaranteed through 2024 by April 1st, 2023.

2020 1st rounder Brandon Aiyuk is now extension-eligible for the first time, set to earn a fully guaranteed $2.3M in 2023. The Niners will have to decide on his 5th year option for 2024 by May 2nd. Aiyuk just finished his best season by a longshot, snagging 78 catches for 1,015 yards and 8 scores, and currently projects to a 4 year, $72M contract in our system. The future of Aiyuk could be an interesting talking point for San Francisco this offseason.

Ray-Ray McCloud enters a contract year on a non-guaranteed $1.2M salary, 2022 3rd rounder Danny Gray enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, & Jauan Jennings should be back on a minimum next season.

The Tight End Room

George Kittle enters Year 4 of a 6 year, $75.5M contract, set to earn $12.25M against an $18M cap number (#1 among 2023 Tight Ends). $4.5M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed, locking the 30-year-old in for the upcoming season. He caught a career-high 11 TD passes in 2022.

2020 6th rounder Charlie Woerner enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. He’ll hit the offseason as a roster bubble candidate, while Tyler Kroft & Ross Dwelley are slated for unrestricted free agency.

The Offensive Line

Left Tackle Trent Williams enters Year 3 of a 6 year, $137M contract, set to earn $20.25M against a $27.1M cap hit (4th most among 2023 OLs). $6.2M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed, with another $10M set to lock on April 1st. The remaining 3 years, $77.3M on this contract are non-guaranteed.

 

2021 2nd rounder Aaron Banks will be back at Left Guard, holding a non-guaranteed $3M over the final two seasons of his rookie deal.

Centers Jake Brendel & Daniel Brunskill are both slated for free agency, making this a priority need for the Niners this offseason.

2022 4th rounder Spencer Burford had an inconsistent first campaign (as to be expected), but he settled into his Right Guard role down the stretch, and holds a non-guaranteed $2.9M through 2025.

Right Tackle Mike McGlinchey is slated for unrestricted free agency, while his apparent replacement Colton McKivitz, should garner a $2.7M tender in restricted free agency.

The Defensive Line

Javon Kinlaw enters Year 4 of his rookie contract, and is now extension-eligible for the first time, but with just 10 games played over the past two seasons, that seems unlikely right now. The Niners will need to decide on his 5th-year option by May 2nd.

After an outstanding 2021, Arik Armstead missed half of 2022 and is set to earn $16.74M against a $23.9M cap figure. While Armstead’s compensation is non-guaranteed, he holds $21.9M of dead cap this offseason, putting the Niners in a tough spot. San Francisco might opt for a smaller restructure here to lower the $23M figure without adding too much to the $14.3M of dead cap for 2024.

 

Samson Ebukam posted a career high 5 sacks this season, but is slated for free agency this coming March. 2022 2nd rounder ??Drake Jackson is likely asked to step into this role going forward.

The big headline here though is attached to DE Nick Bosa, who enters his 5th-year option salary season, set to earn a fully guaranteed $17.8M next season. Bosa carries a $28.6M valuation in our system, with his brother’s $102M guaranteed in clear view. 5 years, $130M, $105M guaranteed should be where things are headed here.

The Linebackers

Dre Greenlaw filled up the stat sheet in 2022, posting 127 tackles, 2 forced fumbles & a pick for his efforts. He’s set to earn $4.775M in 2023 against a very friendly $5.5M cap hit.

Fred Warner enters Year 3 of a 6 year $98M contract, set to earn $13.5M against an $18.5M cap hit for 2023. The 26-year-old was invaluable once again this past season, and the Niners can free up $9.4M of space by converting his base salary into signing bonus this offseason.

Azeez Al-Shaair started 7 games this year and is scheduled for unrestricted free agency this offseason. While RFA Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles should garner the $2.6M first right of refusal tender this March.

The Secondary

Charvarius Ward enters Year 2 of his $40.5M deal set to earn $14M against a $16.4M cap hit. $5M of it is already guaranteed, and another $8.5M locks in this April 1st. A full base salary conversion can open up $9.9M of cap space for the Niners.

Rookie deal cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir, Samuel Womack, & Ambry Thomas all should factor in this offseason, while vets Jason Verrett & Emmanuel Moseley are slated for free agency.

Veteran safeties Tashaun Gipson & Jimmie Ward are set to hit the open market, while 2021 5th rounder Talanoa Hufanga remains a candidate to start next season. Safety is a big position of need for the Niners this March.

The Special Teamers

40-year-old Robbie Gould is headed back to free agency, but he performed well enough to warrant another deal in San Francisco if he’s so inclined.

P Mitch Wishnowsky enters Year 2 of a 5 year contract, carrying a cost-effective $1.8M cap figure for 2023, while LS Taybor Pepper is headed for free agency.


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