15 NFL QB Trade Candidates

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertFebruary 22, 2022
© USA TODAY Sports

Kyler Murray, ARI, 24

2022 Cap Hit: $11,186,842

All we know is nothing, but speculation is enough reason to bear out the possible details here.

Most Likely Scenario:
Murray is signed to a $40M+ per year contract, reunites with his team on social media, and joins them in minicamp.

1% Possible:
The Cardinals trade Murray any time before training camp, taking on $5.9M of dead cap, freeing up $5.5M of space. The receiving team takes on a 1 year, $5.5M fully guaranteed contract, plus the right to his 5th year option for 2023.

 

Matt Ryan, ATL, 36

2022 Cap Hit: $48,662,500

The Falcons don’t yet have Ryan’s replacement on the roster, but that might change in the next few months. A $7.5M roster bonus due March 18th puts any kind of move into early focus.

Most Likely Scenario:
Ryan sticks with the Falcons for one more year, putting him on an expiring contract, with $28M to be freed up if they move on next offseason.

Slightly Possible:
The Falcons trade Ryan before March 18th, taking on an historic $40,525,000 dead cap hit - all in 2022, saving $8.1M of cap space. The receiving team would acquire a 2 year, $51.75M contract, including $23.75M in 2022.

 

Sam Darnold, CAR, 24

2022 Cap hit: $18,858,000

Darnold enters 2022 with a fully guaranteed $18.858M salary, and very little clarity as to his role with the Panthers.

Most Likely Scenario:
Despite a likely high draft selection of a QB this year from Carolina, Darnold is the Week 1 starter. He eventually gives way to the rookie sometime in 2022.

Slightly Possible:
Carolina finds a trade partner, but has to take on a portion of the salary to move him out. There are no restrictions to this process, meaning the Panthers can convert all the way up to $17.8M of the salary into signing bonus prior to trading him, sending along a minimum salary to the new team.

 

Baker Mayfield, CLE, 26

2022 Cap Hit: $18,858,000

Baker's injuries and inconsistent play have his future in question, but he should still be considered the starting QB for 2022 as of now.

Most Likely Scenario:
The Browns may try to reel in one of the big fish this spring (Rodgers, Wilson, Watson), but in failing to do so, run it back with Mayfield for 2022.

Slightly Possible:
Cleveland trades Mayfield to a QB-needy franchise (TB, IND, etc…) paving the way for Case Keenum to take the reins in 2022. The Browns might need to take on some of the $18.8M salary to ship him out.

 

Jared Goff, DET, 27

2022 Cap Hit: $31,150,000

With two first round picks, the Lions could be targeting Goff’s replacement in the next few months.

Most Likely Scenario:
Despite the pending draft selection, Goff sticks as an overpriced Lion for 2022.

Slightly Possible:
Detroit flips Goff before March 17th (when a $15.5M roster bonus is due), taking on a $15M dead cap hit, freeing up $16.15M. The receiving team takes on 3 years, $78.4M, including a fully guaranteed $26.15M for 2022. The contract would contain no dead cap in 2023 for the new team.

 

Aaron Rodgers, GB, 38

2022 Cap Hit: $46,664,157

It seems like the right time to move on. But in what fashion?

Most Likely Scenario:
Rodgers works with the GB front office to facilitate a trade to the team of his choosing (despite not owning a no trade clause), ensuring he’ll be in a situation that won’t make him retire instead of reporting to his new franchise.

If Pre June 1st, the Packers will take on a $26.8M dead cap hit in 2022, freeing up $19.8M of cap space. If Post June 1st, the Packers will take on $19.1M of 2022 dead cap, & $7.6M of 2023 dead cap, freeing up $27.5M of space this season.

The new team would immediately take on a 1 year, $27.5M non-guaranteed contract, certain to be converted into a new multi-year extension at or around the time of the trade.

Also Possible:
Rodgers retires from the NFL. Green Bay drops his $27.5M salary down to the minimum $1.12M, and carries him as an active roster player until June 1st, after which they place him on the reserve/retired list for the remainder of 2022. This process keeps his dead cap hit split as $19.1M for 2022, $7.6M for 2023.

 

Deshaun Watson, HOU, 26

2022 Cap Hit: $40,400,000

Watson shouldn’t even be considered an active roster player until his legal proceedings not only start - but come to a conclusion both with the court system, and the NFL.

Most Likely Scenario:
Watson is moved when the dust settles, leaving behind a $16.2M dead cap hit to the Texans, freeing up $24.2M of space. The receiving team takes on a 4 year, $132M contract, including a fully guaranteed $35M for 2022, and fully guaranteed $37M for 2023 (by March 20th). It should be noted that any future salary/bonus guarantees would be voided if Watson is suspended by the NFL for personal conduct.

Also Possible:
Watson’s career is over based on his legal verdict. All future salary guarantees will void, and the Texans will look to recoup $16.2M of his signing bonus. Houston would place him on the reserve/retired list on June 2nd, taking on a $5.4M dead cap hit in 2022, and a $10.8M hit in 2023.

 

Carson Wentz, IND, 29

2022 Cap Hit: $28,294,119

The Colts haven’t exactly been shy about their lack of intentions to run it back with Carson Wentz for 2022.

Most Likely Scenario:
Despite his late season troubles, Indy finds a trade partner, but must almost certainly take on some of his $28.3M compensation. With no additional dead cap on the contract, whatever salary is converted to bonus will become Indy’s property, while the remainder of the $28M will transfer to the receiving team, fully guaranteed. The remaining 2 years, $53.3M on the deal is non-guaranteed.

Also Possible:
Nobody bites, and Wentz is outright released prior to March 18th (when a $5M roster bonus is due and an additional $7M of salary fully guarantees). Indy takes on $15M of dead cap & cash, but with offsets available, could see that reduced should Wentz sign on elsewhere in 2022 (likely at the league minimum).

 

Kirk Cousins, MIN, 33

2022 Cap Hit: $45,000,000

The new regime in Minnesota seem to favor keeping Cousins, but everyone has a price.

Most Likely Scenario:
The Vikings not only keep Cousins, they extend his contract out another 2-3 years, lowering his cap hit significantly for the 2022 season. Cousins holds a $35M projection in our system, but something closer to $40M seems extremely likely.

Also Possible:
Minnesota trades Cousins to a QB needy franchise (PIT, IND, TB), ripping the band-aid off on what could be a full-blown rebuild. The move would leave behind just $10M of dead cap to the Vikings, freeing up $35M of space. A receiving team takes on a fully guaranteed 1 year, $35M contract, which will likely be extended out at or around the time of the trade.

 

Derek Carr, LV, 30

2022 Cap Hit: $19,877,519

Josh McDaniels and Co. seem thrilled about the chance to work with Derek Carr in 2022. But this remains a landing spot for a Rodgers or Wilson if the opporutnity arises.

Most Likely Scenario:
Carr not only sticks, but he's extended to a $40M per seasons multi-year contract.

Also Possible:L
The Raiders reel in a big fish to replace Carr, and trade him (possibly as part of the new QB deal). Las Vegas takes on no dead cap to move on from Carr, freeing up all $19.8M of space. The new team gets Carr at a non-guaranteed 1 year, $19.8M, with a new contract certain to follow.

 

Gardner Minshew, PHI, 25

2022 Cap Hit: $2.54M

Minshew is buried on the Philly depth chart, that could get even deeper with a big move this offseason.

Most Likely Scenario:
Minshew is traded for a better than 6th round pick, leaving behind $0 of dead cap to Philly. He brings with him a non-guaranteed 1 year, $2.54M contract.

Also Possible:
Minshew sticks in Philly, acting as a very capable backup option to Jalen Hurts for 2022. He’s slated for unrestricted free agency in 2023.

 

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, 30

2022 Cap Hit: $26,950,000

Jimmy has all but confirmed that his time in SF has come to a close.

Most Likely Scenario:
The 49ers trade Garoppolo this offseason, taking on a $1.4M dead cap hit, freeing up $25.5M of much needed cap space. The receiving team takes on a 1 year, non-guaranteed $25.5M contract.

Also Possible:

San Francisco gets cold feet about Trey Lance, don’t convince Tom Brady to come out of “retirement”, and can’t strike a deal with their rival Packers to secure Aaron Rodgers for 2022. Garoppolo stays, restructures his contract, tacking on 4 void years to the deal while dropping his 2022 cap hit to $8.23M.

 

Russell Wilson, SEA, 33

2022 Cap Hit: $37,000,000

We haven’t heard a thing about Russell leaving Seattle for almost an entire year now. But crazier things have happened.

Most Likely Scenario:
Wilson stays, restructures his $24M salary, and opens up space for Seattle to add pieces at the start of free agency. A full restructure plus 3 void years, frees up $18.3M of space for the Seahawks.

Also Possible:
The trade list is pulled out of the drawer, and Seattle ships their franchise QB out of town prior to his March 20th roster bonus payment. The move leaves behind $26M of dead cap in 2022, freeing up $11M of space. A receiving team takes on a 2 year, $51M contract, with just the $5M roster bonus considered as upfront guarantee. The two sides likely hammer out a new contract at or around the time of the trade. Wilson currently projects to s $43M contract in our system.

 

Tom Brady, TB, 44

2022 Cap Hit: $20.2M

Is he, or isn't it?

Most Likely Scenario:
Tom Brady remains retired and quadruples his annual earnings via business ventures & investments. The Buccaneers place him on the reserve/retired list on June 2nd, leaving behind dead cap hits of $8M in 2022, & $24M for 2023

Slightly Possible:
Brady works with the Buccaneers to facilitate a trade (seemingly only to SF), running it back for one more season. Tampa Bay would want this move to happen after June 1st most likely, splitting their dead cap into $8M for 2022, $24M for 2023, freeing up $12.2M of space this season. Brady brings with him a 1 year, $10.8M contract to a new team - a ridiculous value for the 2021 passing leader.

 

Ryan Tannehill, TEN, 33

2022 Cap Hit: $38,600,000

Tennessee would probably like to upgrade here, but wanting and being able to are two very different things.

Most Likely Scenario:
Tannehill sticks in TEN for 2022, and restructures his salary to free up space for the Titans. A full salary restructure can free up $20M of 2022 cap space for Tennessee.

Slightly Possible:
Tennessee pulls a late spring move, trading Tannehill after June 1st. The move leaves behind $9.6M of dead cap in 2022, and another $18.8M in 2023, freeing up $29M in 2022. The receiving team takes on a fully guaranteed $29M in 2022, and a non-guaranteed $27M for 2023.


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