Burrow is guaranteed $35M over the next two seasons in Cincinnati, but he’s done more than enough to garner an immediate extension in his first offseason of eligibility. He projects to a 6 year, $275M contract in our system, which would mean $310M in total value over the next 8 seasons. Kyler Murray’s 7 year total contract averages just under $38M per year (with $219M of his $265M likely to be earned). Will Burrow accept a deal of similar format but at a $40M total contract AAV (7/280, 8/320)?
Hurts steps out of a Super Bowl runner-up season and into a contract year with the Eagles, becoming extension eligible for the first time. Philly hasn’t been shy about their intent to lock up their QB1 this offseason, and there’s a 6 year, $265M ($44M per year) valuation for him in our system. It’s logical to assume the deal approaches $48M per year when all said and done however. UPDATE: Hurts agreed to a 5 year, $255M extension
Herbert is guaranteed $33.7M over the next two seasons, coming off of a season where he completed north of 68% of his passes, despite career lows in TDs, Yards/Game, and Passer Rating. Herbert’s Chargers haven’t found the team success that Burrow’s Bengals or Hurts’ Eagles have yet, but that shouldn’t keep LA from locking in their QB1 this offseason. Herbert holds a $44M valuation in our system, projected to a 6 year, $265M extension (8 years, $300M total value).
It would be wrong to leave Lamar off of this list, despite the idea that an extension this offseason is becoming less likely every day. Let’s just keep this one simple for now: Take the $32M franchise tag figure, convert it into a signing bonus, and take on $100M more - fully guaranteed through 2025. Use void years and a few cap conversions to keep the annual hit tenable, lower the risk slightly for Baltimore, and give Lamar Jackson a chance to reset this whole process in 2026 - his age 29 season.
Barkley won’t be joining the Giants this spring while his $10M franchise tag remains unsigned. We’ve laid out a projected look at what a multi-year extension going forward might look like here: https://www.spotrac.com/news/next-contract-saquon-barkley-1847/
Lamb has put together back to back strong campaigns in Dallas, setting himself up to be the next notable rookie extension at the WR position. He carries a 4 year, $90M valuation in our system to date, though A.J. Brown’s $25M per year deal in Philly has to be in the conversation here.
The 2020 2nd rounder enters a contract year with the Colts, coming off of a 96 catch, 900 yard, 3 TD season in 2022. He’s caught 185 balls over the past two seasons, despite an inconsistent Colts offense (to say the least). Christian Kirk’s 4 year, $72M deal with the Jags is a strong comp right now, though any team that values him as a true WR1 going forward will almost certainly be asked to go north of $20M per year.
Lawrence enters his 5th-year option season with the Giants, set to earn a fully guaranteed $12.407M in 2023. He’s coming off of a career year, posting 7.5 sacks, 68 tackles, and 2 forced fumbles last season. Recent deals for Jeffery Simmons & Daron Payne have strengthened the defensive tackle market, raising Lawrence’s calculated valuation to a near $20M per year. A 4 year, $80M contract extension should be considered a floor for the 25-year-old this offseason.
Williams has combined for 18 sacks, 104 tackles and 2 forced fumbles in the past two seasons, putting him in line for a top of the market extension in NY. He finished 2022 as PFF’s #4 overall interior defender, currently projecting to a 4 year, $106M contract extension in our system.
It’s been a quiet year for edge rushers, with much of the attention being subverted to the interior defensive line in recent weeks. Nick Bosa’s extension in San Francisco should quickly change that, as the 25-year-old carries a baseline valuation north of $28M right now. He’s entering his 5th-year option season, with $17.85M fully guaranteed in front of him. Will a 5 year, $145M offer, $105M+ guaranteed get this one done?
NEWS
